Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: I'm Av Shinratanta and you're watching New Order for viewers worldwide, including to an audience of around 1 and a half billion on RT India, we examine how global power is being rewritten and how India and its partners are shaping what comes next.
The war in West Asia ended, except that it didn't. Iran and the US have continued striking each other. The Islamabad memorandum, barely weeks old, is hardly more alive than the millions killed, wounded or displaced by uk, us, EU armed Israeli attacks on Lebanon, bedrock of the Trump signed Versailles Agreement. Secretary Rubio in press releases say talks are on track. Officially, this is still a ceasefire. Unofficially, war risk insurance premiums have hardly recovered from the 30 times what they were before the Epstein War began. And that means the Omani Iranian section of the Strait of Hormuz determines economic progress on this planet. Meanwhile, India's most traveled prime minister is mid sweep through the Indo Pacific after hosting Japan's Takechi in Delhi in a trip to Indonesia, PM Modi is headed to Auckland, the first Indian Prime Minister to visit New Zealand in 40 years, before landing in Melbourne, where 40,000 people are waiting in a diaspora event. Both New Zealand and Australia are part of the five Eyes US mass global surveillance architecture exposed by Edward Snowden. Meanwhile, the United States has confirmed its own India visit is coming. Ambassador Gore said it plainly this week Trump is heading to New Delhi sooner rather than later. The trade deal, he added, is in its final one place, even as Trump's February executive order mandates 25% taxes on Indian goods for its record high imports of Russian energy, let alone another 12.5% for alleged Indian use of forced labor. At the end of the show, we'll be joined by new orders. Zahra Khan to answer questions from you, the viewers, to help us make sense of India's strategic choices at this pivotal moment. We are joined now by Vikram Sood, former chief of India's research and analysis wing. He's the author of the Ultimate Goal and Great Power From Western Decline to Eastern Ascent and joined us now from Bengaluru. Vikram Sood, welcome to New Order. I know our Indian audience will want your favorite spy films to give us the accuracy of them, but unfortunately the world is more dangerous than that. We don't know whether Israel how it may be sabotaging funeral arrangements in Iran.
The lying in state has just happened. How do you characterize Modi to go to the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei murdered by Trump along with all those children in Minab? Is it a misconduct opportunity or a great strategic calibration
[00:02:44] Speaker B: well, for a much traveled man, I think it is a bit of a surprise for me that he's not going.
And although he's just went back from Seychelles before going off to Auckland, I think. And frankly, I have no idea why he's not going. And one of the reasons could be that we are trying to make peace with the United States.
[00:03:15] Speaker A: I didn't realize you were at war. I mean, what's the significance? But what's the significance then of sending the Governor of Bihar, Lieutenant General Syedat Hasnayan, as well as the Minister Pabitra, Margarita? Why this Lieutenant General?
[00:03:29] Speaker B: Well, Athar Hasnain, the Shia.
So it's good to send a Shia Muslim governor to Iran, Tehran.
But, yeah, those are pure political decisions, I should think.
[00:03:48] Speaker A: Hundreds of millions of Indians have been affected by the Epstein War, the Netanyahu Trump war. When it comes to energy inflation and shortages in India, do you think that India's security services, let alone the External Affairs Ministry, treat threats to Iran as a threat to India's national security?
[00:04:14] Speaker B: Well, it's a threat that bounces off Iran onto us because if you are going to tighten the regime of Iran and not let oil flow for a bit or close the Straits of Hormuz, force the closure of the Straits of Hormuz because of what's been happening, then it affects us and our interests. We get that much less energy.
So it's not a threat from Iran, but it's a threat that emerges from the circumstance.
[00:04:42] Speaker A: Would India's spies have known about the attempt to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei? Would their spies have known that Trump wanted this war?
No.
[00:04:53] Speaker B: No, they haven't told me. I know.
[00:04:57] Speaker A: I mean, a lot of money is spent on these spy services. They're supposed to know stuff like this.
Speculation, though, now that Trump is gonna pivot to Ukraine after basically his defeat, is India now in a stronger position to ignore the threats from the United States about importing Russian energy because of the Iran war?
Or will India still be fearful of Trump as he continually threatens? As I said in the introduction, these tariffs on Indian goods, I don't think
[00:05:35] Speaker B: we were ever fearful.
We knew what he would do or could do, but it was our decision to import oil for our needs.
If the other countries can talk of their national interest, we will talk about ours.
We need the oil. Our economy would come to a standstill if you have a shortage of energy. So we will go and get it. Oil supplies that have come have eventually also reached Europe.
So why penalize us when the Europeans are taking the Same oil outsourced from us.
[00:06:13] Speaker A: A point Modi presumably will make if Trump comes and visits, which according to US Ambassador Gore said just the other day that that's in the offing. And it's not just Europeans importing Russian energy. Of course it's the Pakistanis. Why do you think the United States didn't threaten Zardarian Sharif with any tariffs for importing Russian energy?
[00:06:37] Speaker B: It all is based on how useful another country is to the United States.
They recommended him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
They offered to negotiate, bring about a solution in the Iran US conflict.
And they've been carrying messages up and down from the Americans.
And if you want to go into history, then the Americans have always favored Pakistan vis a vis India.
It's a long story. I wouldn't go into all that now, but right from the beginning, 47 onwards, first the British and then when the Americans took over the reins of the globe and from the British, then it was a continuation of a policy that you favor Pakistan.
India was considered dubious because they had a socialist leader and that was evil. And non alignment was worse.
So we were treated in that fashion.
65 war, 71 war.
Nixon sent his 7th Fleet into the Bay of Bengal.
So we've been through all that.
[00:07:57] Speaker A: Yeah.
And it's been non aligned and had close relations with Russia. Let's just move swiftly on then to the BRICS summit in Delhi. What single initiative do you think will show the power of non alignment, let alone multi alignment, as it's been called, let alone multipolarity. At this BRICS summit in Delhi, what do you, what initiative would you like to see come out of it?
[00:08:19] Speaker B: I would like to see anything that shows that the Indians, the Russians, the Chinese are getting together on something. If, if you look at the map, Arctic Ocean, Russia, China, India, Indian Ocean, Pacific on the right.
Now, if somewhere we can get these three countries to act together inside BRICS or outside brics, that becomes a formidable message to the rest of the world, America included, that three nuclear powers, largest armies, well equipped armies, good economies, doing well.
So if they choose to get together, this can be a formidable block.
And if a message can go that we are in it together, that's the main message that should go.
Not what we expect others to do, that doesn't matter, but what the BRICS with Brazil and South Africa and everybody else included with Ric the lead.
So that would be a message. I would see it coming out from the meeting.
[00:09:36] Speaker A: Do you expect NATO dirty tricks to continue though to prevent exactly that grouping that you and arguably Billions of people on Earth would like to see.
[00:09:48] Speaker B: Yes, I think so.
The Deputy Secretary of State was in New Delhi a few weeks ago, March, a few months ago, and at a meeting he said quite clearly that we made a mistake by helping China become a major economic power.
We're not going to do that with India. We'll not make that mistake again. Now, what does that tell you?
Tells you there will be sanctions, there will be tariffs, there'll be all sorts of restrictions not to let India grow.
That's American heritage. I'm not talking about the Europeans yet.
I'm talking about America.
So what is the message that we should take from that? It's an official talking openly at a conference.
It's not even a threat or a warning or a suggestion behind closed doors telling the world.
So we have to take serious note of that.
But I've always written about that, too, that we're not going to get any help.
Forget it. We are on our own.
[00:11:00] Speaker A: What sort of dirty tricks then can we expect? And what do you feel personally then when you turn on the TV in India and see a politician start criticizing China or Russia and almost just fall into a trap about not unifying with these other BRICS powers?
[00:11:22] Speaker B: Well, we are a democracy where everybody is allowed to express his or her opinion.
So criticism of Russia or criticism of America does not mean that you are in the other camp.
I'm not in any camp, but I do have my point circulated.
So it's not the political statements that politicians or other people make that causes concern. It is when you notice that when we are going to do the reforms in agriculture, the demonstrations were massive by the poor farmers who were going to benefit the most from the arrangement. There would be no intermediary.
And there were demonstrations, there were protests, the farmers were poor, but this came in Mercedes cars and air conditioned.
And they set up their own hotels and bars on the Grand Trunk Road and had a jolly good time while the demonstrations continued. Eventually it got a little violent and we had to draw back, pull back on the legislation. Now, the point is, who is most interested in not letting this act go through?
[00:12:48] Speaker A: You might have to explain how the act is related to this BRICS future.
[00:12:54] Speaker B: No, I'm talking about. We're talking about anybody could play double with us on this and prevent this.
You hit at one part of the story and then the story gets, you know, goes haywire, loses track and you bargain.
So that's the sort of pressure that come on India, on brics, on ric. Join it together. It'll be a Straight flat out open air criticism of this getting together.
They won't play hide and seek.
[00:13:35] Speaker A: Vikram Sud will continue after the break. Keep watching New Order.
You're watching New Order. Vikram Sood. In a few days time this week, there's gonna be.
The Americans are gonna decide on 12 and a half percent tariffs on Indian goods over human rights concerns. And of course human rights is often used.
I mean, as someone who's worked in the security, you know, in the intelligence services, how human rights are weaponized in this way.
[00:14:15] Speaker B: That's, that's true. This is one other thing that that's a favorite weapon that they use, human rights violations. I know very well that during the 1990s when we were facing terrible terrorist conditions in Kashmir, the West was only concerned with raising issues about human rights violations by the Indians. They never talked about terrorism in Kashmir.
They made this movie, Zero Dark Thirty and they showed in it the torture of some of the suspects, motorboarding and all that sort of thing.
Now when we used to give reports sometimes saying that we found this person is doing this, that or the other and we may take action.
If it was obtained from interrogation, they would not accept it.
[00:15:18] Speaker A: Yeah, but I don't suppose India's gonna put 12.5% tariffs on for Guantanamo Bay, which last time I saw the prison was the torture camp was still open. Actually just on that, on the Hollywood narratives. Cause I know you've been talking about it. How important is it for BRICS nations to have their own narratives spread through their own art and culture? I mean, you consider Hollywood almost like a weapon of US empire, let alone the NGOs.
[00:15:49] Speaker B: Absolutely. I think it's not enough to do something. It must be shown to be done and it has to be done in advance, constantly, repeatedly, in different ways.
I mean, we in India have been reading newspapers about Ukraine and Iran and all the reports are from APP or Reuters or Bloomsburg and so on so forth.
Obviously we are not getting the full picture.
Perceptions have to be created in advance and perceptions have to be sustained of strength, of abundance or whatever you want to portray to the people and to the countries that you are targeting that we are together and this is what we are able to do or can do.
[00:16:52] Speaker A: Yeah, but the only problem is that brics nation channels like RT or cgtn, they're the band then effectively in those NATO countries.
So that soft power, I mean, they talk about freedom of speed, but there's no ability for the soft power to get through. I mean, India has the biggest film industry. Perhaps it's up to India's film industry.
[00:17:15] Speaker B: Yeah.
No, our film industry has also to learn from what the Americans did with this with Hollywood.
The CIA and Pentagon had liaison officers posted in Hollywood who would help them make films and correct the nuances, make it better.
And when they found that more Chinese money had come into the film, they started being very careful with how they portrayed China in their films.
So Hollywood, the screen and the voice is a far greater impact on the human mind and quicker than reading a book.
So that imagery plus the message has to go. And if somebody is banning newspaper journalists and TV journals or TV shows or channels, then obviously they're upset about that and they're worried.
This is what they themselves do.
[00:18:25] Speaker A: And just on the China point, obviously members of Modi's cabinet are going to have differing opinions.
What would you say to a member of Modi's cabinet who said, look, look at the Chinese line of control with India. We cannot trust China. We should not be getting closer to China. We should. I mean, I don't know, maybe you'd say they're an American spy and not true to the principles of the Indian constitution. What would you say to those people who warn against rapprochement with China?
[00:18:54] Speaker B: No, I think it's okay for the opposition to say all this because it's their job to say that. I would not expect a member of the government to say this openly.
It's up to the government to decide whether they want to trust or not trust the United States or China or Russia.
But it's not up to any minister or any member of parliament to say, comment like this, make a comment like this.
[00:19:29] Speaker A: But just finally, to be patriotic, to be a patriotic Indian, is to want the leaders, as you've suggested in the past, the leaders of India, China and Russia should sit down together.
[00:19:40] Speaker B: Yeah, I should think that they should get together and there's a lot to talk about.
A lot can be done and need not be inimical to anybody else. It doesn't have to be.
But if you're doing things for your own people, then what is the harm?
I am not fighting wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iran, Ukraine and losing all the battles.
Tell me, which battle have they won?
I'm digressing. The point is the three countries with the largest population, largest armies, largest markets, resources, what are we scared of?
[00:20:33] Speaker A: And just specifically, actually, just, I've got time for one more about India's energy security since it's so important. The Chabahar port, which India has so much invested in, in ir.
Do you see that in any Iran, Oman, India pipeline. These are crucial for India's national security, energy security in the future. Regardless of what Trump may wish to, how he may wish to harm India, Iran relations,
[00:21:02] Speaker B: that pipeline is going to be useful for us. Jabar Port is an entry point for us into Central Asia. We would like to continue with that. And that imac that we were hoping for or to take goods from Iran, Indian goods from Iran into Europe is good for us. So all these three things would hopefully come back into reckoning and usage at some time or the other.
Well, it's a, it's a lopsided world these days. It's so much happening, we can't predict what will happen tomorrow.
With the kind of statements and actions that come out every day, it's difficult to predict where it will all end up.
The only hope is that it ends soon.
[00:21:56] Speaker A: Vikram Sood, thank you.
[00:21:59] Speaker B: Thank you.
[00:22:04] Speaker A: And now I'm joined by Zahra Khan with some of your questions.
[00:22:07] Speaker C: Zahra, lots of questions coming in on X. Huwar has asked what could Trump's new visit to India mean for the relationship?
[00:22:15] Speaker A: Yeah, what relationship? Given what Vikram Sood said, an expert on espionage from his days at the research and analysis wing, he better be very wary. Modi, given that we're already, as we were saying in the interview, expecting perhaps 25% extra on trade for Russian energy, 12.5% over human rights abuses. I think perhaps the India relationship with the United States is so crucial to Trump that perhaps those tariffs may not emerge. But there's no doubt that Trump's gonna be forcing India to buy $500 billion of US energy. Warplanes, tech, metals. How will India respond and calibrate itself in this strange position of needing the energy from Russia, needing the energy from Iran, as Vikram Sood was saying, and yet maintain relations with this quixotic, mercurial Donald Trump.
Very difficult to see beyond kind of asinine, kind of anodyne communiques at the end of any visit.
[00:23:21] Speaker C: I think that's a really important point that you bring up about US and energy because Andrea Sutton wants to know, is US Blockading world shipping, sinking oil shipments, is that all ploy to establish a US Monopoly on energy?
[00:23:32] Speaker A: You mean the strategy, actual strategy in the Trump decision making process?
Well, I suppose it could look like that. So he kidnaps Maduro in Venezuela. Venezuela, the largest source of oil in the world.
Reported U. S backed plans to assassinate Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia.
[00:23:50] Speaker B: The Libya war.
[00:23:52] Speaker A: This is the United States deep state trying to control all energy resources except that it's all ended in complete, utter failure. So I suppose if that was the strategy, it's not working. Iran is defeating the United States and those Midwesterners in the United States will punish Trump at the midterms if gas prices continue to be high because of this super 4D chess move.
[00:24:18] Speaker C: And the old veteran wants to know why is anyone paying attention to U.S. sanctions at all anymore?
[00:24:23] Speaker A: Exactly. America has no power. Unfortunately, the United States does have power. I mean, I should say there's a shadow economy in cash.
So when he's talking about, when our viewer is talking about who uses United states dollars anymore, 20, 25, 25 figures are $2.4 trillion in cash being used compared to 2005 when only 759 billion was used in cash. Who uses cash these days? Well, they're using dollar bills for something. The shadow economy, who knows what else. But it has to be said the bank of International Settlement's latest statistics actually show the share of global foreign exchange where a dollar is exchanged for something or a C for something has increased in the past year. So the dollar is not dead yet, even if Delhi, the BRICS summit, tries to create a future funeral of the dollar.
[00:25:17] Speaker C: And finally, Paul Champagne has asked how many more acts of terrorism will be carried out by Ukrainians westward?
[00:25:22] Speaker A: Yeah, I suppose he's referring there to the Monaco terrorist attack. Presumably the attack was by as according to French reports that it's the Ukrainian Foreign Service and MI6. So the fact is half a billion ammo rounds have been given by the United States to Zelenskyy 50,000 small arms rounds. What's going to happen to all the weaponry that the European Union and Britain have been pouring in to dictator Zelensky?
That's obviously going to spread. There'll be small arms all over Europe. So any kind of terrorist will be able to use this massive injection of weaponry that is being traded on the black market in Western Europe.
[00:26:02] Speaker C: Thank you for those answers. We'll pick this back up next week.
[00:26:04] Speaker A: Thank you, Zahra. And that's it for me. Before we wrap though, here's a question for you to answer. In a world of blurred lines between state and non state actors, what does national security even mean anymore? Send us your answer on XneworderTV. I'm Afshin Ratansi and we'll be back next Sunday tracking how global power is being reshaped in real time. What it means for India's position in this new order.
