Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Foreign.
[00:00:12] Speaker B: Refansi and welcome back to Going Underground, broadcasting all around the world from the UAE in a region trying to calm the tensions between Iran and the USA following this week's intervention by Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and Oman to stop US Attacks on Iran last weekend. This amidst the continuing UK US EU armed genocide in Gaza and a reported new Pentagon Pentagon Doctrine for U.S. tactical nuclear weapons against China and Russia. While GCC nations and brics favor dialogue, the world's largest so called defense alliance bloc, NATO has done little to stop US Attacks in West Asia, instead repeating like a mantra that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon even as Iran controls global prices through the Strait of Hormuz. The only NATO country to border Iran is Turkey where NATO last month held its summit to declare Russia as a long term threat and tens of billions of dollars to be given to dictator Zelenskyy of Ukraine. Joining me now from this year's NATO summit host capital Ankara in Turkey is the professor of political science and International relations at Basket University and host of the podcast Strategic Compass, Professor Hassan Unal. Thank you so much professor for coming on Going Underground. We don't know by the time this is broadcast all around the world except in Western Europe whether this new nuclear doctrine of Pete Hegseth has been invoked. But Turkey is the only NATO country bordering Iran. Just explain what exactly is its position, Turkey's position on the Trump Netanyahu war on Iran?
[00:01:44] Speaker A: Well, I think there are two discernible lines in Turkey's foreign policy towards the war by Israel and the United States against Iran.
Now if you take Hakan Fidan's utterances basically right from the beginning of the war, then you can actually jump at the conclusion. Well, Turkey is quite pro American and pro Israeli because it expects Iran to crumble within a very short period of time. Indeed, Minister Fidan was on record, I think just into the third or fourth days of the war, American Israeli aggression against Iran, saying that if you don't have this technology, if you don't have blah blah capability, then how can you actually bully United States and Israel? How can you challenge them? But if you follow what President Erdogan has said, you know, all along then, then it's quite a sensible policy, basically distancing itself from taking side with any party, although it's been, as you mentioned, a NATO country.
So Minister Fidan was also getting together with the Gulf Arab countries to sign away a number of certainly more than one declaration calling Iran the aggressor on the Gulf Arab countries and what have you. And there was Quite considerable criticism at his way of explaining the war to the Turkish public. But the Turkish public is quite.
Anti American and anti Israeli in anything, everything. Not only in this war against Iran, but in anything you can think of over the last few decades.
[00:03:50] Speaker B: Yeah, because Foreign Minister Fidan, maybe he's thinking about the F35s which I will get onto later in the show. I mean, Turkey has simultaneously, as I understand it, helping Iran against the Kurds that Trump announced to the world the United States was arming as fake protesters in January and simultaneously facilitating US Warplanes from the NATO base in Inchilik that may have bombed Iran.
[00:04:24] Speaker A: On the question of Inchilik, no, the Inchilic air base is almost closed since the aborted coup of 15th of July 2016, in which the base was, I think, used a bit to support the attempted coup.
So since then there has been no American combat troops, no American Air Force planes deployed to the base. There may be British ones.
[00:05:03] Speaker B: I'm quite surprised there because, I mean, you held the Ankara NATO summit leaders summit. Did people not comment on the fact that supposedly this important base in Turkey was no longer being used by the United States? I don't know whether by MI6, not anymore.
[00:05:20] Speaker A: I mean there may be certain logistical planes, you know, taking off, say somewhere in Poland and then making a flight into the region. And then they may be calling at the Angelic base for logistical purpose, but that's about all. Other than that, there has been no proper combat use of their Angelic air base against anybody, certainly not against Iran and not even, I would say, for reconnaissance purposes.
And there has been a debate inside Turkey about the Couragic radar station, which is certainly monitoring Iran and Iranian missiles. And I think it was installed in 2009 or 11 along those lines after the NATO summit in Lisbon. And that was actually installed to, to monitor Iranian missile activity. But I suppose from a military point of view, that base is obviously very sophisticated and it basically passes on any information from the Iranian side onto the NATO side. And I'm sure the NATO country, the United States passes it on to Israel within seconds. There is no question about it. But the Iranian missile capability is such that even that base has become almost nothing basically in terms of stopping Iranian missiles pummeling Israel. So even all those bases across the Gulf states, they didn't do much in order to stop Iran from again sending all the sophisticated missiles into Israel and the American targets across the region.
[00:07:33] Speaker B: Well, the UAE has been successfully intercepting Iranian drones. I'm in Dubai, so I'm a witness to that. But then Iran's Foreign Minister Aggie publicly confirming that Turkey helped Taqiyeh's role in helping Iran eliminate these.
The poor Kurds being used this way and that way by the CIA for so many decades, even in Iraq, of course, and used in Syria. I mean we surprised by that and surprised that Trump is not more angry with Erdogan given that he was so proud of funding the Kurds to try and foment some kind of revolution in Iran.
[00:08:16] Speaker A: Well, I think he himself is quite disappointed with them.
What they call the Kurdish fighters, the pkk, all its affiliates, the Iranian branch and blah blah branch and the Syrian branch and then you get the Barzani and the Talibani forces and all of them. So I think it was around this time when the United States realized that Iran is certainly a very difficult nut to crack.
They are not going to manage to get the overthrow of the regime in one way or the other. And they would need some sort of land operation against Iran. They basically ordered all those loyal Kurdish forces, if you like.
We then wake up, call and say, well this is your time, okay, and get up, take up arms and are going to be ready and we are going to tell you when to attack Iran. But then the trouble was they basically mumbled and they said, oh, we can't do the job, can we actually do it kind of thing.
[00:09:29] Speaker B: Well, it's not so much that. It's not so much that, is it Turkish intelligence supplied Iranian intelligence with details of these Kurds and where they were and how to kill them.
[00:09:41] Speaker A: I think in December, yes, there was a piece of Turkish intelligence I think that Turkish side supplied Iran with and it proved to be quite important because the Iranian special forces immediately got in. Basically, I think it was about the certain groups that the Americans brought together to cross the border into Iran. So the Iranian side with Turkish intelligence let them in, let them onto the Iranian side and then they encircled them and presumably annihilated them. So after that this was back in, presumably December.
But despite all that, in the 40 days war, the Americans and the Israelis tried their luck with the so called Kurdish forces once again against Iran. And this time round, the Kurdish forces basically were very unwilling to do their bidding because they knew what was going to happen. I think it was at that stage that Erdoan, according to all the reports, called Trump and said, don't do it because if you do it then you will have to force us to collaborate and cooperate with Iran.
And obviously you don't want us to collaborate with Iran.
So it was that Point, I think when the United States gave up the so called Kurdish forces, okay. And now they are very, you know, the Americans, Trump is basically dropping them off like hot potatoes, as they say in British English.
[00:11:27] Speaker B: I mean, is it your understanding that, I don't know, Chelsea Gabbard was, she's retired now as director of National Intelligence. But do you think Turkish intelligence operatives were laughing or I mean, the idea that this intelligence presumably was being provided by Mossad and Amman and the CIA, that somehow this would have any impact in Iran? I mean, how would this ever have been thought up?
They could have given you a phone call in Ankara.
[00:12:01] Speaker A: Oh, they could have followed my postings on my social media account and I do programs actually with the, a former admiral friend of mine. And we keep basically guessing what is going to happen with extreme accuracy. So without any payment for advisory job, they could have followed us, but they didn't. What can we do?
But you know, it was all, I think it was out of desperation because they presumably thought that killing Khamenei and some of the high ranking Iranian officials would have been enough to get the Iranian state structure crumbling altogether within days, perhaps you know, at the most within weeks.
But then as Iran retaliated and retaliated quite effectively and unite us in such a way that United States and Israel never expected on an unprecedented scale, then they got into panic, they didn't know what to do.
And then the usual thing, you look at your list of operatives and what have you on your payroll and then you say, well, there are the Kurds here.
Oh, okay, why don't we call them up and we also have the officials and officers working with them on the ground. So let's get them into the fighting. But then, you know, you have the regional dynamics, for instance, like how would Turkey react to it? Plus would they ever be a good match against the powerful Iranian land forces and special forces and what have you? And there are also Iranian backed forces inside Iraq.
How would you get all of them basically to one side simply sitting and watching while all this is happening? So they're all going to get embroiled.
[00:14:20] Speaker B: Professor Hassan and Al I'll stop you there. More from the host of Strategic Compass and Basket University's professor of political science and international relations after this break.
Welcome back to Going Underground. I'm still here with the host of Strategic Compass and Basket University's professor of political science and international relations, Professor Hassan Onal. Professor, we were talking in part one of how well NATO member Turkey helped Iran tipped off Iran about the Trump Kurd Plan, as it were.
Does Erdogan realize that Israel has Turkey in its sights as the next target after Iran?
Does Turkey understand that?
[00:15:13] Speaker A: Well, I would think it does.
But on the other hand, I would say that Israel is a bit, you know, talking a bit too much about, you know, boasting about this and the other. And, you know, the next target is going to be Turkey. Oh, certainly trying to punch much higher than their weight. You know, how are you going to basically strike Turkey if you do that, then you are going to, basically, it is like poking into the, into the bees nest, basically, in a region is already very, very volatile.
[00:15:56] Speaker B: That's what we said about Iran beforehand, when no one thought they were going to do this.
[00:15:59] Speaker A: Yep, yep, yep. And particularly after basically Iran gave them a bloody nose.
I mean, talking in such a childish way, saying that Turkey is going to be the next target.
Okay, you know, the Turkish institutions, the military, the intelligence and all the other related institutions basically do their job, but politically you don't take them seriously. Would you?
[00:16:27] Speaker B: Well, I was interested in what you said in part one about how since the attempted coup in Ankara, Inchlink Air base is more or less disused, so it's not being used, like, say, the British are using Cyprus to aid the genocide in Gaza. But having said that, Turkey is helping Israel, isn't it? Through the Sayan corridor to which Azerbaijani oil heats the homes of Netanyahu and his friends in Israel as they carry out the genocide. How do you explain Turkey's public condemnation of genocide and simultaneous powering of the houses of occupiers?
[00:17:08] Speaker A: Well, there is a set of contradictions in Turkey's policy towards Israel.
Maybe not so much in the Azerbaijani and Armenia dispute and the Trump Corridor and all that. It's an intricate case between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Pashinyan basically turning against Russia and taking the Western side in every sense. So going over to Trump and say, please, you come in and I push the Russians out kind of thing. But the more visible contradictions in Turkey's foreign policy towards Israel you can find in the Middle East. For instance, why did Turkey get involved in the whole Syria business?
To basically overthrow the Assad regime. The Assad regime was an anti Israel regime and it had basically fought Israel on every occasion.
[00:18:16] Speaker B: Actually, just to interrupt you, Professor, I did one of the last interviews with Bashar Al Assad in Damascus during the
[00:18:23] Speaker A: middle of the war.
[00:18:24] Speaker B: So the question you're asking is a brilliant question and I want you to answer it. Why did Erdogan help overthrow the Syrian government inside the. Which allowed arguably the genocide in Gaza to happen.
[00:18:39] Speaker A: Exactly, exactly. So on the one hand you are vociferously anti Israeli but at the same time you are basically overthrowing a very anti Israeli government in Damascus.
[00:18:56] Speaker B: But why is it? Why?
[00:18:59] Speaker A: Well, I have been basically rocking my brains since the Turkish intervention in this ugly war in 1211, 2011. Because 2011, sorry, basically since 1998, which is when Turkey and Syria made an understanding over all the issues of importance to both countries and began cooperating on particularly Syria and related affairs on all the security matters and then began basically boosting the trade between the country, economic relations and what have you.
You know, it was Erdoan's government which invited the Syrian leader to have holiday with them in, you know, family to family holidays several times.
[00:19:53] Speaker B: That's right. I think he had a personal. I think he felt personally betrayed, let alone many people in the.
[00:19:59] Speaker A: So I think the only.
[00:20:01] Speaker B: It sounds like you're as confused as me about that. So let me put something else and whether this is symptomatic.
[00:20:09] Speaker A: I could just come up with one single answer to all that because I've been trying to come up with an explanation and I think that was Islamist ideology.
I mean when the Arab Spring began, the Erdogan government and Ahmed Dabutole and all these guys basically thought that this was the day they had been waiting for.
So the Prophet basically has given them the opportunity to act now to bring down all these governments and replace them with the Muslim brother ones.
[00:20:45] Speaker B: I'm not sure receptacle a great fan of Israeli sponsored Al Qaeda in Syria though. But I do hear the.
[00:20:53] Speaker A: Well, not Al Qaeda but Muslim Brotherhood governments and they were going to have all that and they were going to set up a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood inspired empire across the Middle East. You know, it was all how I would call it just, you know, it was baseless if they had studied it properly.
[00:21:20] Speaker B: Well, clearly that's a very persuasive. That is certainly a, a very persuasive. We're running out of time so I've got to get on. But that's certainly a persuasive answer. But I was going to ask you then about a similar contradiction if the other question wasn't actually answerable in that Russia calls Turkey calls Russia its partner, but it's similar, same time it's pouring weapons to Zelensky.
How long do you think Russia is going to tolerate Turkish drones being used to attack Russia? I mean last December one of these reported MI6 coordinated drones, I mean was aiming at Valdai at a home of The President of Russia. What if it had been a Turkey drone?
What is Turkey's policy on Ukraine?
[00:22:08] Speaker A: Well, whether Turkey actually has been supplying Ukraine with sophisticated drones I'm not so certain about.
I would also say that the Western press seems to be exaggerating the Turkish supply to Ukraine in order to drive a wedge between Moscow and Ankara. That is quite understandable. The Russians, with whom I'm in close touch do understand the situation.
The problem comes from the NATO membership in the sense that Ukraine is still within the Partnership for Peace program of NATO.
So NATO supplies Ukraine with certain things that Turkey may have produced.
But there has been a direct lines of communication between Moscow and Turkey that is still working.
But occasionally even I get the impression that Turkish policy is basically getting off track. Once again it can because it is not an easy balancing act. And sometimes again you can see the foreign minister saying certain things which are not necessarily which the Russians could easily consider as anti Russian. But then you have the President saying something else kind of thing. But the trade and economic relations and others seem to be going well and the Russians do understand and appreciate Turkey's position. I think there may be more Turkey could actually collaborate with Russia on but it seems to be refraining from that. For instance, at one stage I was, I was certain that the Russians were prepared to recognize Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. You know, they were prepared to go to that length because they were pissed off by Greece and the Greek Cypriots and there they thought that their interests in Eastern Mediterranean certainly overlapped with those of Turkey. But Turkey doesn't seem to be that enthusiastic at the Russians get sometimes during this process. Do you think in the end I'm sure Turkish Russian relations will go smoothly?
[00:24:43] Speaker B: There's a strategic ambiguity obviously, but what with the Turkstream pipeline, half of its oil from Russia. Do you think now we'll see more ambiguity because Turkey, if it is a top five Russian energy importer under the Lindsey Graham act, it gets 100% tariffs from this new act that was signed the other day. Do you think Turkey is worried about that given it's importing more energy from Russia than before?
[00:25:14] Speaker A: Turkey would be worried about that because we are not only importing energy from Russia, but also we are importing it at a discounted price.
And if the United States basically imports impose sanctions on Turkey because of this, it wouldn't be an easy thing for the Turkish government to deal with.
[00:25:39] Speaker B: Is NATO do you think going to end or do you think that was the last summit of its kind in Ankara? If Russia manages to finally end the conflict in Ukraine?
[00:25:52] Speaker A: Well, I always believe that both NATO and the European Union are antiquated alliance and union.
They are the institutions and the alliance basically of the Cold War period.
I don't think they can survive in a multipolar world order. They are going to basically crumble one after the other.
[00:26:21] Speaker B: And just finally, has Iran won the war against the United States and Israel?
[00:26:26] Speaker A: Oh, yes. Oh yes.
It has not only won the war, it is a strategic defeat on the part of Israel and particularly the United States. And Iran with this victory has basically contributed to the transforming of the world order quite massively.
[00:26:47] Speaker B: And do you think that'll be communicated to Western audiences or there's a time lag before people in the United States and Western Europe understand that the second
[00:26:57] Speaker A: there's always a time lag in communicating.
[00:27:02] Speaker B: They get the news slower in London,
[00:27:05] Speaker A: Paris and New York, but not as slow as in the past because we are in a media world where you can hardly hide anything.
[00:27:18] Speaker B: Professor Hassan Nunal, thank you.
[00:27:20] Speaker A: Well, I thank you. That was my pleasure.
[00:27:23] Speaker B: That's it for the show. Our continued condolences to all those of you bereaved or traumatized by today's NATO nation wars of aggression. We'll be back for more on NATO's wars on Monday with multi award winning scholar Professor John Mersheimer. Until then, keep in touch via all our social media if it's not censored in your country. And head to our channel going underground TV on rumble.com to watch new and old episodes of Going Underground. See you Monday.
